Accuracy of Prediction Models for Shrinkage of Concrete


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Title: Accuracy of Prediction Models for Shrinkage of Concrete

Author(s): David B. McDonald and H. Roper

Publication: Materials Journal

Volume: 90

Issue: 3

Appears on pages(s): 265-271

Keywords: concretes; models; shrinkage; standards; Materials Research

Date: 5/1/1993

Seven shrinkage models are compared with data measured on 46 Australian concretes containing over 1500 data points, using the method of residual plotting. This method is shown to be superior to the current methods of presenting shrinkage data, as the method of plotting shrinkage residuals enables inaccuracies in the shape of shrinkage-time curves to be readily identified. It is shown that more complex shrinkage models may not necessarily be more accurate than simple models. The introduction of such parameters as water-cement ratio, aggregate grading, and air content may not necessarily lead to improved accuracy of the models, and some of the recently presented models performed poorly for the Australian concretes used in this paper. It was shown that the simple Australian Code AS 1481 performed better than the other models for the prediction of shrinkage.