Title:
Performance-Based Evaluation of Concrete Freezing-and-Thawing Considering Climate Change
Author(s):
Jin-Su Kim, Woo-Ri Kwon, Norhazilan Md Noor, and Jang-Ho Jay Kim
Publication:
Materials Journal
Volume:
123
Issue:
2
Appears on pages(s):
169-180
Keywords:
climate change; freezing-and-thawing (FT) resistance life; performance-based evaluation (PBE)
DOI:
10.14359/51749445
Date:
3/1/2026
Abstract:
Due to global warming, the temperature of the Earth’s surface increased by 0.95 to 1.20°C in the past four decades. The increase in temperature has significant effects on the concrete industry, causing alternations in concrete curing conditions and degradation in strength and durability properties. The understanding of changes in concrete properties due to variations in curing conditions from climate change is an imminent task that has to be resolved. Among the durability properties of concrete, freezing-and-thawing (FT) resistance is most directly affected by climate change. However, in all the studies conducted on the FT behavior of concrete, the dramatic changes in environmental conditions due to climate change were not considered. Therefore, the focus of this study is to understand the FT performance of concrete under extreme changes in temperature and relative humidity (RH) during curing. To find the relationship between the changes in curing conditions and FT resistance levels as a function of time, a three-dimensional (3-D) satisfaction surface graph was developed
using the Bayesian probabilistic method. Then, an example of 3-D satisfaction surface diagrams for FT resistance based on the weather conditions in New York City between 2001 and 2100 was shown. Furthermore, considering the reduction rate of the average annual FT cycle due to climate change, this study confirmed that FT resistance performance increased. This approach contributes to a performance-based evaluation (PBE) strategy for concrete exposed to FT cycles under various environmental conditions. The study details and results are discussed in the paper.
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